| This last
week kicked off the 2009 watch market auction season with Antiquorum New
York hosting the first auction of the year......the auction gained international
recognition for its auctioning of the Mahatma Gandhi timepiece, sandals,
bowl and glasses....the hype and buzz was off the charts as the price
reached over 2M US....the initial estimate was set at 20-30k US. Overall
results were mixed but I believe this auction demonstrated the collectible
watch market is much more resilient than the overall global financial
markets. Prices were down but based on results we see watches doing much
better than expected....again one auction doesn't make a year but I believe
based on global conditions and the first auction of the year we are going
to see watches perform better than other assets in 2009. As I stated in my market update on Dec. 28, 2008 the place to be if you are a serious collector is either discontinued or vintage models in Patek Philippe.....these continue to hold relatively well and in my opinion offer safe haven in 2009. My reason for stating this is simple....you are not competing with Patek Philippe and their current production hence no new production is being dumped on the market to compete with these older discontinued models..... on another note I've had several clients contact me recently stating they bought 5970's, 5070's 3970's over the last year and have seen them advertised for less in the last 60-90 days....yes, the price has continued to fall but only slightly.....I would estimate these are off about 5-10% since Jan 1,2009.....if you compare this to the global stock markets then we have done remarkably well only losing a small percentage compared to losses that exceed 50% of values in the US S&P values in 2009 already. I am certain that watches offer a nice hedge against the uncertainty of tomorrow plus you have the advantage of holding your assets in your hands or on your wrist.....this alone is priceless. Of course the modern production market will continue to be the focal point today and tomorrow and I have never seen a better time to buy new models than today......5960's are trading at very low numbers in the high 50's and the 5980 steel Nautilus is trading at almost 50% of it's high a year ago....at the 37-40k range they are a great value for the long term and passionate collector.....a very functional utilatarian timepiece that is sure to rise again in the years ahead. One Patek I am excited about is their newest creation....the cloisonne enamel dial Ref 5131J yellow gold World Time.....one of the most beautiful dials you will ever see....US retail is 53,700 but expect this to be one of the few pieces this year that will demand a premium over list....I expect the production to be very low due to the complexity of the dial.....an absolute must for the elitist collector looking to acquire the " best of the best" in Patek Philippe. Today offers fantastic buying opportunities for the ultimate complications such as the Patek Philippe minute repeaters Ref 3939, 5074,3974 5016 and 5002 Sky Moon Tourbillon.....also, I do believe we are seeing the end very near on the Ref 5101 platinum tourbillon......One thing I will note as of late is an absorption of product taking place at all levels which is a good indicator for collectors, dealers and even Patek Philippe......quite honestly their strategy in 2008 backfired and they released too many new production pieces into the global market over estimating the demand.....what they didn't consider is that most of the hot models were being purchased by dealers and speculation was driving the prices higher....after the global credit crisis hit in Sept 08 the dealers had to unload to pay bills etc and therefore the market declined greatly even while Patek Philippe continued to dump product on the market. It does appear from my viewpoint today that Patek has decreased short term production which in turn should dry up the market on modern pieces allowing for the market to establish good solid bottoms and once again begin its long march upward. Based on the above I believe now is the time to invest in high end complicated Pateks as once the supply is dry prices will move higher ....simple supply and demand economics working in a free market at its very best...at the moment you can buy almost any complicated Patek well below the Patek Philippe swiss retail or boutique price. All in all while the market offers some of the most challenging times I have seen in the last 29 years I am optimistic that tomorrow offers a better day for all of us in the world of collecting. If you are uncertain where to invest your cash then you should be considering a stronger allocation to the world's newest and most viable asset class which is collectible wristwatches. As always I look forward to hearing from each of you in the days ahead. Your partner in TIME, Trent Crowley President & CEO http://www.astorlive.com/ 901-248-4892 Direct |