Partners in Time Watch Update by Trent Crowley
March 23, 2010

BaselWorld 2010 and the Spring watch auction season are in full swing today. Both events capture what appears to be the true beginnings of a very promising year for collectors, dealers and manufacturers. Many new and important things have transpired in the watch world over the last 4 months since I last posted a market update. I must say that with each new year the story for collecting watches becomes more compelling and interesting. I've spent the last 30 years involved in the watch industry as both collector and dealer and never has there been a better time for the collector than today. My hope is that wherever you are in the world we will soon have the opportunity to connect on a personal level to share our passion and knowledge for watches.

While Geneva is the epicenter for production then Basel should be considered the mecca for inspiration. A time and place where collectors and dealers worldwide come together to view the world's finest manufacturers newest and brightest creations. As we all know there are many watch companies hustling for the #1 position in the world today but one stands high above all others with watch collectors ... Patek Philippe... Most of you have seen their latest creations for 2010 and after counting them they officially launched 38 new models. In this time of economic recession and cutbacks, in my modest opinion, Patek has produced far too many new models. The window was open for them to really focus and produce fewer yet more exciting models in 2010. Unfortunately, this is not the direction that global collectors had hoped Patek would take. Obviously, if Patek were to produce fewer yet higher quality pieces it would create a stronger demand for their watches... Especially when the global market is trying to steady itself from the last 2 years . I find this one area a major concern and one that I hope Patek addresses in 2010 ....Less is more in today's global economy.

After reviewing the 2010 models by Patek Philippe I have been able to form some opinions about how these will respond in the marketplace. Let me begin, with my personal favorite, the new 5170J manual wind chronograph in yellow gold... It's a beautifully well crafted vintage design that will certainly become a winner in the short and long term for Patek. I have stated for several years that Patek should focus more energy on building new watches that looked like their vintage counterparts as the collectible market seems hungry for them. The only thing needed was to build them larger in case sizes... This was accomplished with the 5170 and done very well... It closely resembles the early model Patek chronographs from the 1940's.

As for the 5950A, the new steel split second chronograph, they seemed to miss the mark in dial and case design... I find the dial to look more decorative in style rather than a classic look... Most collectors for this model seemingly prefer the classic dial and round case styling. If anyone is interested in collecting a rare split second chronograph I believe the 5959P is Patek's most technical accomplishment to date by producing the world's thinnest split second chronograph. The 5950A is the same movement but in a larger case. The technical feat is much more impressive in a smaller case than a larger one. I know several of our high end collectors have their thumbs up on this one!

Again, if your a purist collector looking for value and appreciation I would highly recommend you go after the 5959P which is the previous model. The new model 5950A does not have the look and design needed to succeed in the long term based on history and what I believe the current collector is interested in owning.
I certainly like the new dial for the 5960P and while I'm not a fan of white printing in general I do believe the contrast in this particular watch looks good as it's very readable for the 40 and older collector who is starting to need bigger print to see the time and date. As for the new 5951P split second perpetual that is to replace the 5004 let me say that while I like the actual look of the dial and it's setup of the moonphase the case should have been round.. It's hard to find a cushion shaped Patek that has ever been a huge hit and most collectors prefer round to square, rectangular or cushion shapes. What I really hope is that all of you have bought 5004's already for your collection before the release of this new replacement model as it's surely going to drive the 5004's higher. Nothing will ever truly replace the holy grail of split second's. The 5004 is the most treasured collectible split second perpetual ever produced and will become in the years ahead the most coveted of any Pateks with this complication. Of course, there are 34 other models launched and most of these represent diamond cases and chronograph movements which obviously have been produced by Patek to feed the new emerging market demand. All in all, I believe Patek will continue to overproduce new production models in 2010 thereby enhancing values for discontinued models. I love the 3970's, 5970's, 5004's, 3939's, 3974's, and the 2499's... All of these represent in my eyes the very best of Patek Philippe and their creativity as a family run watch company. Just look at the case designs from the 90's and you will see them at their best. For the elite collector you must stay focused on discontinued models for real value, collectibility and appreciation .

On to the Spring auction season as things kicked off back in early March with Patrizzi and Co and Antiquorum both holding the first auctions of the new year. From the results I witnessed and reviewed both companies were able to render positive results especially on low to mid range timepieces. It is noted that neither company delved into repeaters or high end complications in these auctions. Maybe the well is running dry on repeaters and higher end complications such as the 5101P tourbillons or 5016P minute repeating tourbillons. If there is truly a shortage of collectors willing to sell at the current levels the market will surely push higher in the 2nd half of 2010 . Personally, we've sold several high end repeaters this year but most of them are discontinued models and these especially have great traction and are continuing to move forward. One thing I am always certain will never change... People always want what they cannot have.... Human nature drives this part of the market and you are always safe when making decisions based on this.

In the next few weeks both Sotheby's and Christie's will have their first auctions of the year and if things go as planned we will continue to see record prices set for the rarest and most coveted pieces. For the most part collectors today have become more knowledgeable and able to ascertain values more quickly thereby creating a more sustainable and liquid marketplace. All of this bodes well for collecting watches as an alternative vehicle for investment.....And yes most of us collect because we are passionate about our watches and how they make us feel.

The remainder of 2010 is certainly going to be exciting and challenging at the same time. As I stated back in my last update Nov 1, 2009 we will remain conservative in our approach to collecting, staying focused on buying and selling more discontinued models while still servicing as "day traders" the current production demands. Let's never forget that collecting is more like a marathon than a sprint.... We believe the best days lie ahead for both the novice and experienced collector.

As always we look forward to hearing from you in the days ahead.


Your partner in TIME,


Trent Crowley
President & CEO
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