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The Patek Watch Tan

So I was in Playa del Carmen, Mexico early this past summer soaking up the sun with the most beautiful women in the world & thank god they recognized the Patek Philippe I was wearing..I

What would you do with

So you had a wild debaucherous night, lost your Patek 5970P, & now you’re wondering where in the world it is?..well here’s your solution to finding “it”…

Wait!, let’s throw a lil’ curve ball here..maybe “it” stands for something greater than a soon-to-be quarter million dollar collectible timepiece?…maybe “it” stands for the one thing you must not unwillingly give up, yet, the one thing you must sacrificially give to spark a new meaning in life?…could this be an enlightened way for collectors to view the Patek Philippe Reference 5970P?…I smell a limited edition 2011 release of a new Reference 5970P!!..Let’s just call it “The Charlie” for now;)

So let’s cut straight to the chase on finding this sucker…ask that sweet girl who borrowed “it” from you not to return “it” back to you, yet instead, send “it” to AstorLive to be auctioned off to a worldwide audience via Ebay “No Reserve” where 100% of the grossed funds will be donated to starving kids in India & Africa..seriously, when has it ever not been a classy move to fight world hunger?

Of course, the 5970P will have to be shipped from an anonymous person in a fully secured package so as not to put anyone to blame for theft or misconduct..not that it would matter at this point right, Robin Hood?..Everyone wins in this situation…”The Charlie” Limited Edition Reference 5970P is born, Patek collectors around the world will rejoice & millions of starving kids’ lives will be changed as a result..a genuine chance to make a statement to the world!

What would you do with “The Charlie”?

Partners in Time Watch Update March 23, 2010

BaselWorld 2010 and the Spring watch auction season are in full swing today. Both events capture what appears to be the true beginnings of a very promising year for collectors, dealers and manufacturers. Many new and important things have transpired in the watch world over the last 4 months since I last posted a market update. I must say that with each new year the story for collecting watches becomes more compelling and interesting. I’ve spent the last 30 years involved in the watch industry as both collector and dealer and never has there been a better time for the collector than today. My hope is that wherever you are in the world we will soon have the opportunity to connect on a personal level to share our passion and knowledge for watches.

While Geneva is the epicenter for production then Basel should be considered the mecca for inspiration. A time and place where collectors and dealers worldwide come together to view the world’s finest manufacturers newest and brightest creations. As we all know there are many watch companies hustling for the #1 position in the world today but one stands high above all others with watch collectors … Patek Philippe… Most of you have seen their latest creations for 2010 and after counting them they officially launched 38 new models. In this time of economic recession and cutbacks, in my modest opinion, Patek has produced far too many new models. The window was open for them to really focus and produce fewer yet more exciting models in 2010. Unfortunately, this is not the direction that global collectors had hoped Patek would take. Obviously, if Patek were to produce fewer yet higher quality pieces it would create a stronger demand for their watches… Especially when the global market is trying to steady itself from the last 2 years . I find this one area a major concern and one that I hope Patek addresses in 2010 ….Less is more in today’s global economy.

After reviewing the 2010 models by Patek Philippe I have been able to form some opinions about how these will respond in the marketplace. Let me begin, with my personal favorite, the new 5170J manual wind chronograph in yellow gold… It’s a beautifully well crafted vintage design that will certainly become a winner in the short and long term for Patek. I have stated for several years that Patek should focus more energy on building new watches that looked like their vintage counterparts as the collectible market seems hungry for them. The only thing needed was to build them larger in case sizes… This was accomplished with the 5170 and done very well… It closely resembles the early model Patek chronographs from the 1940′s.

As for the 5950A, the new steel split second chronograph, they seemed to miss the mark in dial and case design… I find the dial to look more decorative in style rather than a classic look… Most collectors for this model seemingly prefer the classic dial and round case styling. If anyone is interested in collecting a rare split second chronograph I believe the 5959P is Patek’s most technical accomplishment to date by producing the world’s thinnest split second chronograph. The 5950A is the same movement but in a larger case. The technical feat is much more impressive in a smaller case than a larger one. I know several of our high end collectors have their thumbs up on this one!

Again, if you’re a purist collector looking for value and appreciation I would highly recommend you go after the 5959P which is the previous model. The new model 5950A does not have the look and design needed to succeed in the long term based on history and what I believe the current collector is interested in owning.?I certainly like the new dial for the 5960P and while I’m not a fan of white printing in general I do believe the contrast in this particular watch looks good as it’s very readable for the 40 and older collector who is starting to need bigger print to see the time and date. As for the new 5951P split second perpetual that is to replace the 5004 let me say that while I like the actual look of the dial and it’s setup of the moonphase the case should have been round.. It’s hard to find a cushion shaped Patek that has ever been a huge hit and most collectors prefer round to square, rectangular or cushion shapes. What I really hope is that all of you have bought 5004′s already for your collection before the release of this new replacement model as it’s surely going to drive the 5004′s higher. Nothing will ever truly replace the holy grail of split second’s. The 5004 is the most treasured collectible split second perpetual ever produced and will become in the years ahead the most coveted of any Pateks with this complication. Of course, there are 34 other models launched and most of these represent diamond cases and chronograph movements which obviously have been produced by Patek to feed the new emerging market demand. All in all, I believe Patek will continue to overproduce new production models in 2010 thereby enhancing values for discontinued models. I love the 3970′s, 5970′s, 5004′s, 3939′s, 3974′s, and the 2499′s… All of these represent in my eyes the very best of Patek Philippe and their creativity as a family run watch company. Just look at the case designs from the 90′s and you will see them at their best. For the elite collector you must stay focused on discontinued models for real value, collectibility and appreciation .

On to the Spring auction season as things kicked off back in early March with Patrizzi and Co and Antiquorum both holding the first auctions of the new year. From the results I witnessed and reviewed both companies were able to render positive results especially on low to mid range timepieces. It is noted that neither company delved into repeaters or high end complications in these auctions. Maybe the well is running dry on repeaters and higher end complications such as the 5101P tourbillons or 5016P minute repeating tourbillons. If there is truly a shortage of collectors willing to sell at the current levels the market will surely push higher in the 2nd half of 2010 . Personally, we’ve sold several high end repeaters this year but most of them are discontinued models and these especially have great traction and are continuing to move forward. One thing I am always certain will never change… People always want what they cannot have…. Human nature drives this part of the market and you are always safe when making decisions based on this.

In the next few weeks both Sotheby’s and Christie’s will have their first auctions of the year and if things go as planned we will continue to see record prices set for the rarest and most coveted pieces. For the most part collectors today have become more knowledgeable and able to ascertain values more quickly thereby creating a more sustainable and liquid marketplace. All of this bodes well for collecting watches as an alternative vehicle for investment…..And yes most of us collect because we are passionate about our watches and how they make us feel.

The remainder of 2010 is certainly going to be exciting and challenging at the same time. As I stated back in my last update Nov 1, 2009 we will remain conservative in our approach to collecting, staying focused on buying and selling more discontinued models while still servicing as “day traders” the current production demands. Let’s never forget that collecting is more like a marathon than a sprint…. We believe the best days lie ahead for both the novice and experienced collector.

As always we look forward to hearing from you in the days ahead.

Your partner in TIME,

Trent Crowley
President & CEO

Partners in Time Watch Update November 1, 2009

It’s been too long since my last watch market update and I’ve been searching for the right time which has evaded me until now….I just reread my last update from March 2009 and I must say I was right on target based on the market and where it headed in 2009. Maybe I can be so fortunate as I opine about the days ,weeks and months ahead leading us into 2010.The good news is the watch market has been trending higher monthly since about June and this is due largely to economic uncertainties that the world is facing today….If like me you believe these uncertainties will continue into 2010 then collectible wristwatches will be a place of safe haven and appreciation.

We just returned last week from the final International Wristwatch and Jewelry Guild show in New York for 2009 and found the optimism there was better than I have seen in a few years…..dealers were back on track with their inventories as most have sold off their old stock that was overpriced and everyone seems to be on the same page for now…bottom line is all the major dealers have taken their hits and ready to deal at the new market levels. I found that inventory for modern production Patek Philippe models such as the 5960, 5970, 5070, 5980, 5712, 5102, 5101′s have been greatly reduced and all of these models are trading about 5-10% higher than in June 09…so we are seeing an uptick based on supply and demand which is a great sign for everyone. Speculation on these models has left for now but that too is a positive sign as the market is building a base without speculation and hype. It’s being driven by pure passionate collectors who want to invest their money in something that will hold value and has potential for appreciation both now and later.

After speaking to many dealers at the watch show it was evident to all that the Asian market is very much alive and well and currently leading the way globally especially in watches……Of course with the US dollar at an all time low against other currencies this makes a huge difference. We believe this trend will continue in 2010 as the dollar continues to weaken and other currencies rise to new levels offering our international dealers and collectors their best opportunities to do business here in the US.

I’ve made friends with many major dealers and collectors from Bangkok, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan and all of them keep telling me they believe Asia as a whole will continue to strengthen in 2010 and I believe they are absolutely correct.

This alone will drive the watch market higher as Asians have a passion for watches that I have not seen anywhere else in the world and this is good news for the global watch market.

The summer and fall auction season for Antiquorum, Christies, Sotheby’s, Patrizzi & Co all produced reasonable market results and nothing worth noting sold above and beyond expectations. I will note the Patek Philippe vintage market is down at the moment especially in average pieces. Prices for Ref 1463, 130, 3448, 3450, 591, 1579 and others seem to be trading well below where they should be….I tend to look for values outside the normal range and today that place is vintage Patek Philippe. I believe now is the best time I have seen in 10-15 years to buy high end vintage Pateks. In fact I am certain they offer the best place to be if you can be guided through the maze of subjection that is needed to buy the right piece. Also, I love the fact that you don’t have to worry whether the watch is sealed in plastic or dated recently etc…..The key in buying a vintage Patek is to make sure it has an original certificate or extract of the archive, good solid hallmarks , nice dial, case and movement and you cannot go wrong….. again it’s a market that requires more due diligence when stepping out for a nice piece but the reward is worth the effort…..Nothing compares to strapping on a Patek Philippe vintage timepiece and realizing nobody else in your circle has this watch ….Nothing like the pride of ownership especially when its something special and unique.

One area I would like to discuss is discontinued Patek Philippe models……I have said for several years the best place to be is in discontinued models such as the 3974, 2499, 2497, 3970, 5004, 5050, 3940, 3712….basically anything no longer in production by Patek is the best place to be simply because Patek is no longer putting these on the market thereby allowing econometrics (supply and demand) to come into to play. We all know that human nature is driven by wanting what it cannot have.

This principle works well here and if you are a serious or novice collector wanting to get more involved in the collectible watch market then you will not find a better time than today…..The market for all of the above and others offer tremendous investment and enjoyment opportunity….I’ve had many of you email or call ?in the last few months asking me in particular about the 5004′s, 3970′s and so on…..each time I say the same thing….all of these are excellent timepieces to collect for both passion and appreciation….You will not go wrong at the current levels we are seeing today.

I will note that one thing I have noticed since the beginning of the year is that high end minute repeaters have become very scarce and the ones that were sold off early in 2009 due to financial reasons have all been sold and on the wrists of new owners who made very good decisions…..we saw 3939′s minute repeater tourbillons selling below 300K US and our clients are still calling and asking for more…..Those days seem to be over for now…..I only wish we could have obtained more at the old levels…..Those who made the leap of faith will be greatly rewarded in the years ahead.

Until now the secondary market was yielding prices well below the Patek Philippe boutique price and while this continues to be the case at the moment I see this gap closing quickly based on the US dollar decline and high demand for the very best Patek has to offer. I still believe the most beautiful classic all time vintage and modern repeater is the 3974 in all metals. You will not find a better Patek complication that bridges both the modern and vintage production than this model.

It was produced in 1989 as the first official minute repeater perpetual production timepiece to celebrate Patek’s 150th anniversary and according to auction information less than 100 pieces exist in all metals.

We have sold many of these over the last 20 years and still to date I don’t find a better all around ?minute repeater.

My advise to the elite collector is you must own this watch or your collection is not complete or never will be.

I guess this alone will keep this a timeless and priceless treasure to collect, admire and love.

Now, where do we go from here is the next question that must be addressed. For those of you that know me closely you might think I am the eternal optimist and I guess in one sense I am and always be as I believe that things always get better eventually but today my contrarian view remains. I believe we must continue to be cautious as we head into 2010 and keep looking for the best pieces at the right prices……Even though prices have been moving higher over the last 4-6 months we continue to be conservative in our approach knowing that collecting is not a sprint but a marathon and that we always have TIME on our side. I do believe we will continue to see a decline in the US dollar over the next year if even only slightly more than now. Also, I expect the Asian and other emerging markets continue to enter the collectible watch market pushing demand to its highest levels ever. As I stated 2 years ago this baby has legs and is no longer going to settle crawling around when it can walk…..I believe we will continue to see this market emerge in 2010 with many new and exciting opportunities for all of us who love collecting the very best timepieces in the world.

On another note I wanted to share with all my global friends my sincere thanks for your loyalty and partnership these last 12 years while we have made the Internet our home. Just recently while in New York I had the pleasure to sit down with a client from Taiwan over coffee and it dawned on me while our cultures may be different our pleasures of indulging ourselves in collecting is the most common ground I have ever witnessed….What a pleasure to be a part of such a wonderful industry with the finest people from around the world…..I tip my hat to all of you who I know as friend and partner.

You truly are the reason I love what I do.

As always I look forward to hearing from each of you in the days ahead.

Your partner in TIME,

Trent Crowley
President & CEO

Partners in Time Watch Update March 9, 2009

This last week kicked off the 2009 watch market auction season with Antiquorum New York hosting the first auction of the year……the auction gained international recognition for its auctioning of the Mahatma Gandhi timepiece, sandals, bowl and glasses….the hype and buzz was off the charts as the price reached over 2M US….the initial estimate was set at 20-30k US. Overall results were mixed but I believe this auction demonstrated the collectible watch market is much more resilient than the overall global financial markets. Prices were down but based on results we see watches doing much better than expected….again one auction doesn’t make a year but I believe based on global conditions and the first auction of the year we are going to see watches perform better than other assets in 2009.

As I stated in my market update on Dec. 28, 2008